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Live
PTR
10.2.7
PTR
10.2.6
Beta
Mysterious Egg
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260787
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57943
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133226
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Post by
Kappa143
Perhaps he is confusing a rare, random "drop" with quest item drops, which actually
do
become more likely to drop with each kill.
Source? I have never heard of this mechanism.
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40175
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57943
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40175
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292710
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Post by
StumpJumper
This follows the "correct" logic that is also responsible for the saying:
"Its always in the last place you look". Its not that it was somewhere hard to find, it just means you stop looking after you find it =)
and Droood - that was Very well put. Probabilities are a hard thing to explain in the first place, so I say well done.
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212244
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152320
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Post by
windstrum
One thing's for certain, if you don't have the egg, you have a 0% chance of getting the mount!
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260787
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Post by
Katsudon
I think it would be too hard to prove unless a blue post explicitly says that which i doubt. Any user-data would have to classify each egg purchased both by character and in chronological order.
I'm gonna have to assume its a flat percentage, as i don't think they would want too many people having this mount
Post by
Porcell
I understand probability and statistics, but that's not what I meant.
Perhaps he is confusing a rare, random "drop" with quest item drops, which actually
do
become more likely to drop with each kill.
This is what I meant; that the actual drop rate increases with each egg. The first chance is 1% for example, but you don't get the mount. So, you buy another egg and wait 7 days. This time around, Blizzard has raised the percentage of gaining the mount to 1.2%. This is what my guildie meant when he said it to me; can anyone verify if this actually follows through with the egg and not just quest items?
But this doesn't make sense. Why would they increase the drop rate of the mount, specifically? Why wouldn't it increase the drop rate of, say, the drake pet, or the tickbird pet, or any of the other possible drops?
It doesn't make sense. It's a flat percentage drop for each of the possible items. That's it.
Post by
Liquoid
Take a coin, for example. If you flip the coin, the "drop rate" of it turning up heads is 50%. Let's say the first flip is heads. So what is the probability of it turning up heads again on the 2nd flip? Well in actuality, the probability is the SAME with every flip - 50%. However, had you calculated it originally, the probability of heads appearing twice in a row is 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25 or 25%. So if you KNOW that the first flip was heads, then the probability of the second flip being tails is actually 75%. So when you consider the previous flip, the probability of tails on subsequent flips actually goes up when you consider it all together. But individually, each flip has a 50% chance.
That's Gambler's Fallacy. Consider the following example:
In case with eggs, it's a fact that 1 out of 10 will 100% have the mount.
In case with coins, it's a
probability
that 5 out of 10 will have heads.
This is because each coin toss is independant of the other tosses, which the eggs between them have have a rule to which they all obey: one of them contains the mount.
Post by
Liquoid
As for Progressive Percentage theory, it does in fact exist. Let me explain in short.
This was implemented in Warcraft III (if I remember correctly), to
reduce chance of a crit streak
. That is, if a unit is hitting another unit and it has a chance of a critical strike, the chance to crit isn't calculated independently for each hit, as it should. What actually happens, is that if the first attack didn't crit, the chance for the second one to crit is manually increased. If that doesn't crit too, the chance of the third critting is too increased, and so on until a critical strike is dealt. Over large number of attacks, this simulation is very accurate to as if the crit chance was independent for each attack, but over a small number of attacks, it is arguably possible to exploit the system.
An example is DoTA. As it's technically a custom map build for Warcraft III, mechanics for stun (bash), crit, maim (S&Y), Mjolnir and the various "proc" type spells obey this rule. Some players try to abuse the system by going and hitting a couple of creeps in the forest, hoping that those 2-3 attacks against the creeps don't "proc" the crit/extra damage/stun/etc. If those couple of attacks didn't proc, then the player leaves the forest and hits an enemy hero, with the chance to proc crit/stun/main being
increased
.
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70690
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166613
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